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2011 Community Projections Review: Elvis Andrus

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The LSB community doesn't agree on much... but one thing it was pretty much on the same page about was what Elvis Andrus would do in 2011 for the Texas Rangers.  The standard deviation for his Runs Created (RC) was only 8.3, third lowest on the team and well below the other regular starters who ranged from 11.2 to 14.0.  The slash line for Elvis in 2010 was .265 / .342 / .301 for a .643 OPS in 674 PA.  LSB generally believed he would hit about the same, but with a bump in SLG to .360, closer to the .373 SLG he put up in 2009 rookie season.

  PA AVG OBP SLG OPS RMSE
LSB Average
666.6  .277  .347  .360  .707  0.49%
ZiPS 679.0 .269 .344 .338 .682 3.83%
Marcel 591.0 .273 .344 .356 .699 5.73%
2011 Results 665.0 .279 .347 .361 .708 0.00%

 

In this community projection the LSB average absolutely nailed it.  The 0.49% RMSE was the absolute lowest on any player projection for 2011 by any person or system.  It was off by only 1.6 PA, 2 AVG points and 1 SLG point.  About as close to exactly calling what he'd do as you can get.  Crowd sourcing at it's finest and evidence that LSB knows Elvis better than anyone.

2011 was a nice step forward for Elvis who approached league average in offense with a wRC+ of 96 to go with his impressive glove and league leading base running skills.

Using a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) approach [lower is better] the top and bottom individual projections have Longhorn at the top of the projections [double congrats as this is Longhorn's second #1 finish] and hornedfrogs45 at the bottom [indisputable proof I suppose of UT > TCU].  Everyone's rankings can be found in this Google Spreadsheet and the top and bottom 5 shake out as:

 Top 5
PA AVG OBP SLG OPS RMSE
1. Longhorn  657  .274  .351  .360  .711 1.23%
2. Endyr
660 .277 .345 .350 .695 1.64%
3. utlonghorn24
668 .274 .338 .356 .694 1.74%
4. hotshot215
655 .272 .345 .370 .715 1.94%
5. hefe300
688 .282 .353 .363 .716 2.03%
 Bottom 5
PA AVG OBP SLG OPS RMSE
98. LiamP
 580  .265  .320  .330  .650  8.98%
99. Poltergeist
705 .264 .345 .300 .645 9.37%
100. JBImaknee 701 .290 .370 .420 .790 9.43%
101. Robert L. Bishop
580 .250 .320 .320 .640 10.73%
102. hornedfrogs45
643 .247 .301 .287 .588 13.59%