The Philadelphia Phillies, who reportedly were on the verge of re-signing closer Ryan Madson to a 4 year, $44 million deal a few days ago, have now reportedly agreed on a contract with former Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon.
The deal is supposedly 4 years for almost $50 million, with a fifth year vesting option that could make the entire package worth $60 million.
Papelbon is about to turn 31, was moved to the bullpen in the first place because of concerns about how his arm would hold up to the stresses of starting, and was considered a possible non-tender candidate prior to last season because his 2009 and 2010 seasons weren't that good (for a ten-figure closer), with a FIP of 3.05 and 3.51, respectively.
Papelbon got his walk rate under control last year, and had a solid season:
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | W | L | G | GS | GF | CG | SHO | SV | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | IBB | SO | HBP | BK | WP | BF | Awards | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | 22 | BOS-min | A- | 1 | 2 | .333 | 6.34 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 32.2 | 43 | 23 | 23 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 36 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 152 | 1.592 | 11.8 | 0.6 | 2.5 | 9.9 | 4.00 | LOW · NYPL | ||
| 2004 | 23 | BOS-min | A+ | 12 | 7 | .632 | 2.64 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 129.2 | 97 | 43 | 38 | 6 | 43 | 2 | 153 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 520 | 1.080 | 6.7 | 0.4 | 3.0 | 10.6 | 3.56 | SAR · FLOR | ||
| 2005 | 24 | BOS-min | AA,AAA | 6 | 4 | .600 | 2.59 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 114.2 | 80 | 37 | 33 | 11 | 26 | 3 | 110 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 448 | 0.924 | 6.3 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 8.6 | 4.23 | PRT,PAW · EL,IL | ||
| 2005 | 24 | BOS | AL | 3 | 1 | .750 | 2.65 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34.0 | 33 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 17 | 2 | 34 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 148 | 173 | 1.471 | 8.7 | 1.1 | 4.5 | 9.0 | 2.00 | ||
| 2006 | 25 | BOS | AL | 4 | 2 | .667 | 0.92 | 59 | 0 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 68.1 | 40 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 75 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 257 | 517 | 0.776 | 5.3 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 9.9 | 5.77 | AS,RoY-2 | |
| 2007 | 26 | BOS | AL | 1 | 3 | .250 | 1.85 | 59 | 0 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 58.1 | 30 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 84 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 224 | 257 | 0.771 | 4.6 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 13.0 | 5.60 | AS | |
| 2008 | 27 | BOS | AL | 5 | 4 | .556 | 2.34 | 67 | 0 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 41 | 69.1 | 58 | 24 | 18 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 273 | 199 | 0.952 | 7.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 9.63 | AS | |
| 2009 | 28 | BOS | AL | 1 | 1 | .500 | 1.85 | 66 | 0 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 68.0 | 54 | 15 | 14 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 76 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 285 | 254 | 1.147 | 7.1 | 0.7 | 3.2 | 10.1 | 3.17 | AS | |
| 2010 | 29 | BOS | AL | 5 | 7 | .417 | 3.90 | 65 | 0 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 67.0 | 57 | 34 | 29 | 7 | 28 | 4 | 76 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 287 | 112 | 1.269 | 7.7 | 0.9 | 3.8 | 10.2 | 2.71 | ||
| 2011 | 30 | BOS | AL | 4 | 1 | .800 | 2.94 | 63 | 0 | 54 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 64.1 | 50 | 22 | 21 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 87 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 255 | 145 | 0.933 | 7.0 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 12.2 | 8.70 | ||
| 7 Seasons | 23 | 19 | .548 | 2.33 | 396 | 3 | 334 | 0 | 0 | 219 | 429.1 | 322 | 126 | 111 | 31 | 115 | 10 | 509 | 17 | 0 | 10 | 1729 | 197 | 1.018 | 6.8 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 10.7 | 4.43 | |||||
| 162 Game Avg. | 4 | 3 | .548 | 2.33 | 67 | 1 | 57 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 73 | 55 | 21 | 19 | 5 | 20 | 2 | 87 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 295 | 197 | 1.018 | 6.8 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 10.7 | 4.43 | |||||
Still...this deal doesn't make much sense to me. You've got a guy who has been volatile, who is entering his early 30s, and who has some health questions surrounding him. Assuming the new CBA doesn't have major changes to free agent compensation (a big assumption, but that's what we have to work with right now), he'll cost the Phillies a first round pick.
Seems like there are a lot better ways to spend $50 or $60 million dollars.