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2011 Community Projections Review: David Murphy

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David Murphy had a nice season in 2010.  He posted a career high .806 OPS in 467 PA providing better production than you'd expect from a fourth outfielder.  It was especially valuable given the amount of time missed by Hamilton and Cruz.  His projections were steady and expected similar production in 2011 as we saw in 2010 with a tiny dip in OPS and PA.

  PA AVG OBP SLG OPS RMSE
LSB Average 457 .285 .347 .454 .801 7.68%
ZiPS 486 .277 .338 .446 .784 7.83%
Snark (Marcel) 483 .273 .336 .436 .773 6.67%
2011 Results 440 .275 .328 .401 .729 0.00%

For the first five months of the season, Murphy's 2011 was abysmal.  Coming into September Murphy had a slash line of .251 / .317 / .352 and made GDTs erupt in fury whenever he came to the plate.  However, in a true show of grit, he rebounded with a great September where he went .351 / .366 / .557 to help pick up the slack when Nelson Cruz made his second trip to the DL.  Ultimately his 2011 was disappointing but saved from being tragic. 

Using a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) approach [lower is better] the top and bottom individual projections have GoFrogs at the top of the projections and erudy at the bottom.

Everyone's rankings can be found in this Google Spreadsheet and the top and bottom 5 shake out as:

 Top 5
PA AVG OBP SLG OPS RMSE
1. GoFrogs 450 .282 .330 .425 .755 3.46%
2. Endyr 425 .270 .330 .430 .760 4.11%
3. AfterSchoolSpecial 460 .290 .345 .420 .765 4.99%
4. t ball 430 .274 .337 .441 .778 5.30%
5. TooLegitToQuit 400 .280 .331 .425 .756 5.54%
 Bottom 5
PA AVG OBP SLG OPS RMSE
72. Bigfan16 487 .307 .368 .479 .847 13.93%
73. Bats and Balls 500 .296 .348 .500 .848 14.92%
74. BigGuns 520 .302 .371 .485 .856 16.11%
75. adub74 580 .290 .350 .450 .800 17.58%
76. erudy 587 .297 .357 .457 .814 19.06%