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2011 Community Projections Review: Derek Holland

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Derek Holland came into the 2011 season as one of the most polarizing members of the Texas Rangers. His 2010 was a mixture of injuries and up and down performances with time split between AAA and the big league club. He posted a 4.08 ERA in 57.1 innings in the 2010 regular season, but his post season included an epic meltdown in the World Series on a national stage. The LSB community is a mix of those who love Holland and think he'll be a stud, those who don't trust him and some who think he's probably going to be traded at any minute. The projections were fairly optimistic in expecting to get 164 innings from Holland, but with a moderate 4.03 ERA.

IP ERA K BB HR RMSE
LSB Average 164.7 4.03 142.6 61.1 18.5 9.03%
ZiPS 125.0 4.54 103.0 45.0 18.0 22.36%
Snark (Marcel) 91.0 4.50 75.0 32.0 12.0 26.38%
2011 Results 198.0 3.95 162.0 67.0 22.0 0.00%

Holland was as up and down in 2011 as his projections where. He tied for the AL lead in shutouts but also had several memorable meltdowns where he didn't make it past the second inning. His aggregate numbers were fairly close to the projections with a nice bump with 198 innings pitched. Holland ended the 2011 season with a very strong second half, posting a 3.06 ERA compared to the 4.68 in the first half. He also provided a new World Series memory with 8.1 shut out innings in Game 4 for an epically awesome performance on a national stage.

Using a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) approach [lower is better] the top and bottom individual projections have seanathan at the top of the projections and rockin_rangers at the bottom.

Everyone's rankings can be found in this Google Spreadsheet and the top and bottom 5 shake out as:

Top 5
IP ERA K BB HR RMSE
1. seanathan 190.0 3.90 158.0 67.0 21.0 2.78%
2. crazy86er 186.0 4.01 165.0 67.0 21.0 5.55%
3. Baseball North 180.0 3.75 160.0 60.0 20.0 6.09%
4. Poltergeist 178.0 3.77 142.0 62.0 22.0 7.26%
5. t ball 177.0 3.63 157.0 62.0 19.0 7.39%
Bottom 5
IP ERA K BB HR RMSE
59. tklawless 152.0 4.32 138.0 90.0 16.0 35.77%
60. JBImaknee 100.0 5.49 79.0 53.0 13.0 38.67%
61. Section 339 190.0 2.35 125.0 14.0 15.0 42.42%
62. jdh90 125.0 4.25 116.0 88.0 13.0 51.60%
63. rockin_rangers 98.0 4.57 95.0 88.0 8.0 78.98%