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2012 Community Projections Results: Yu Darvish

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Reviewing the best and worst of the pre-season community projections.

Jim Cowsert-US PRESSWIRE

Yu Darvish!

Man did he strike out and walk a lot of people.

LSB as a community expected Darvish to come in and pitch like a front line starter right off the bat with lots of innings, a very good ERA for someone who pitches half their games in RBIA and strong peripherals.

Darvish's actual results were up and down (and then up again!) with dominant starts mixed in with absolutely terrible control problems but after changing his approach somewhat, ending the season with exceptional numbers and pitching as one of the best pitchers in baseball for the last six weeks of the season.

Congratulations to Gay For Feliz for having the lowest score* with his projection. Here is a spreadsheet with how everyone did.

*Score is the average number of standard deviations away from the actual 2012 value

Results IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 SCORE
2012 Season 191.3 3.90 10.40 4.19 0.66
LSB Average 197.5 3.26 8.95 2.49 0.86 1.80
ZiPS 194.0 3.62 7.84 2.13 0.84 2.03
Marcel No Data
2011 Season No Data
Top Five Projections
1. Gay For Feliz 192.0 3.12 10.00 3.50 0.80 0.99
2. LSJ 200.0 3.69 9.69 3.69 1.00 1.02
3. Conjunction 200.0 3.40 9.30 3.50 0.70 1.06
4. hightowersmith 180.0 3.30 9.30 3.70 0.75 1.13
5. philkid3 185.0 3.65 8.20 3.90 0.80 1.18
Bottom Five Projections
108. nickbahh 210.0 2.95 8.90 2.30 1.20 2.59
109. Maximilian 208.0 3.07 8.70 1.95 1.10 2.60
110. sprite 193.0 3.36 8.90 1.60 1.40 2.63
111. RangerMad 222.0 2.21 8.50 1.70 0.70 3.01
112. kinsler61 225.0 2.70 8.30 2.20 1.20 3.17