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Sigh.
Typically LSB does an excellent job projecting Elvis Andrus. But 2013 was a big disappointment as Elvis struggled offensively for much of the year. He didn't hit as well and all the doubles vanished. Much of the community was expecting a step forward for Elvis in his age 24 season.
On a positive note, the defense and baserunning were both strong, as they always are, and his overall value wasn't bad as almost a 3 win player. But not at the level of the back-to-back 4 win seasons he had in 2011 and 2012. Additionally, Elvis hit .301 / .358 / .378 in the second half of the season, much closer to the .293 / .357 /. 391 projected by the community.
Congratulations to kjtrill for having the lowest score* with his projection. Here is a spreadsheet with how everyone did.
*Score is the average number of standard deviations away from the actual 2013 value
Results | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | SCORE |
2013 Season | 698 | .271 | .328 | .331 | |
LSB Average | 687.3 | .293 | .357 | .391 | 2.32 |
ZiPS | 702 | .276 | .346 | .356 | 0.98 |
Steamer | 698 | .279 | .349 | .374 | 1.37 |
2012 Season | 711 | .286 | .349 | .378 | 1.73 |
Top Five Projections | |||||
1. kjtrill | 670 | .275 | .338 | .359 | 0.98 |
2. unlikelyfanatic | 687 | .280 | .345 | .370 | 1.33 |
3. AfterSchoolSpecial | 715 | .282 | .351 | .363 | 1.47 |
4. Longhorn | 688 | .281 | .349 | .372 | 1.47 |
5. Philar | 645 | .272 | .347 | .372 | 1.49 |
Bottom Five Projections | |||||
88. Adam J. Morris | 700 | .311 | .372 | .421 | 3.55 |
89. TheHuntforRedOctober | 680 | .305 | .375 | .420 | 3.55 |
90. JDT217 | 680 | .314 | .383 | .396 | 3.65 |
91. Akalhar | 699 | .313 | .376 | .424 | 3.74 |
92. Yu-ichi | 608 | .310 | .362 | .451 | 4.36 |