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So... Elvis.
Elvis is the unusual case where both the LSB crowd sourced projections and the FanGraphs Depth Charts projections did worse than simply just guessing he'd do what he did last year. He did have more power this year with a change in approach and using a heavier bat, but the start of the season was so awful that even with a second half more in line with his better years his overall 2015 numbers are still very disappointing.
The commenter who came the closest in projection was: DiamondTalk1310!
Notes
- OPT+ is an indicator of how a projection compared to the LSB Average. 100 is average, 110 is 10% better than average, and 90 is 10% worse than average.
- SCORE is an average of the number of standard deviations away from the actual results for each projected value also known as a Z-Score.
- FanGraphs Depth Charts is from FanGraphs.com using their hybrid of ZiPS and Steamer and manually determined playing time.
- The number in parentheses after LSB Average is the total number of entries for this player.
- Spreadsheet with all entries
Results
PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPT+ | SCORE | |
2015 Season | 661.0 | .258 | .309 | .357 | .666 | 93 | 0.00 |
2014 Season | 685.0 | .263 | .314 | .333 | .647 | 91 | 0.63 |
FanGraphs Depth Charts | 630.0 | .270 | .327 | .346 | .673 | 90 | 0.87 |
LSB Average (80) | 665.0 | .275 | .336 | .356 | .692 | 100 | 0.84 |
Top Five
Commenter | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPT+ | SCORE |
DiamondTalk1310 | 650 | .260 | .320 | .340 | .660 | 89 | 0.49 |
Lil Nubber | 665 | .251 | .304 | .332 | .636 | 86 | 0.55 |
WhipSmart | 670 | .260 | .320 | .330 | .650 | 89 | 0.59 |
Keystone Heavy | 650 | .270 | .320 | .365 | .685 | 97 | 0.60 |
philclark | 650 | .268 | .313 | .335 | .648 | 88 | 0.61 |
Bottom Five
Commenter | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPT+ | SCORE |
RobGordon | 711 | .286 | .375 | .350 | .725 | 112 | 2.05 |
Baseball North | 700 | .290 | .360 | .390 | .750 | 122 | 2.14 |
AlaskaRanger | 562 | .301 | .377 | .369 | .746 | 96 | 2.78 |
Gdawg | 700 | .310 | .375 | .400 | .775 | 130 | 2.94 |
Ed Looney | 615 | .305 | .390 | .390 | .780 | 113 | 2.99 |