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2015 Community Projections Results: Shawn Tolleson

Congrats to Baseball North!

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Shawn Tolleson had a great year and is a solid back end reliever.  He's not blow you away dominant, but he's a key reliever and he can get saves.  One of the better success stories of the year.  Of particular note is how he cut his walk rate.  Not sure that's sustainable, but it sure was nice this year.  I'm also a little concerned his arm is going to fall off considering how much he's been used, but such is the life of a reliever.

The commenter who came the closest in projection was: Baseball North!

Notes

  • OPT+ is an indicator of how a projection compared to the LSB Average.  100 is average, 110 is 10% better than average, and 90 is 10% worse than average.
  • SCORE is an average of the number of standard deviations away from the actual results for each projected value also known as a Z-Score.
  • FanGraphs Depth Charts is from FanGraphs.com using their hybrid of ZiPS and Steamer and manually determined playing time.
  • The number in parentheses after LSB Average is the total number of entries for this player.
  • Spreadsheet with all entries

Results

IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 OPT+ SCORE
2015 Season 72.3 2.99 9.46 2.12 1.12 206 0.00
2014 Season 71.7 2.76 8.67 3.52 1.26 101 1.13
FanGraphs Depth Charts 65.0 3.94 8.75 3.57 3.80 116 1.37
LSB Average (42) 62.2 3.52 8.33 3.44 3.94 100 1.44


Top Five

Commenter IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 OPT+ SCORE
Baseball North 70.0 2.50 9.00 2.50 1.10 176 0.58
TxPower 74.0 3.25 8.80 3.30 1.20 128 0.95
piscene 67.0 2.77 8.90 3.40 1.00 148 1.06
Bunch of Numbers 65.0 3.15 8.60 3.40 1.10 120 1.10
jellly 65.0 3.15 8.50 3.00 1.00 148 1.10

Bottom Five

Commenter IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 OPT+ SCORE
AceJC 54.0 4.88 8.20 3.70 3.96 83 2.22
Iram01 50.0 4.12 8.80 4.50 4.52 28 2.42
droidsarefun 51.0 3.87 7.40 3.70 4.61 21 2.60
slc ranger 57.0 4.63 7.70 3.80 4.68 17 2.73
ok.fester 28.0 5.32 7.80 3.80 4.80 3 3.70