Elvis Andrus, 3000 hit club member? Silly though that may seem, the numbers suggest that he has a chance of getting there...
Jay Jaffe has a new piece at SI, focusing on Jose Altuve in particular, but also looking generally at what active players have a legitimate chance of reaching 3000 hits, using two different methodologies -- one Jaffe developed in 2009, and one developed by Bill James years ago, and known as the "Favorite Toy."
Jaffe's method has Elvis projected at ending up with the 7th most career hits of any active player, though ultimately falling short, while the Favorite Toy method has him as one of 16 players with at least a 10% chance of reaching that mark.
The initial reaction to seeing that is, I'm sure, some combination of ridicule and disbelief, but Elvis has two significant things going for him that land him on the list of potential candidates.
First is durability -- Elvis has never landed on the disabled list, and almost never misses time due to injury. That durability means he gets more playing time and more opportunities to accumulate hits.
Second, and most importantly, is age -- Elvis arrived in the majors as a 20 year old, and so was accumulating hits at a much earlier age than most players. Since 1990, Elvis is 10th in most hits for a player through his age 27 season, with 1226. And with 40 games to go in his age 27 season, Elvis has a decent chance of passing Andruw Jones at #9 (1254 hits), and could reach Junior Griffey and Adrian Beltre, who are tied for #7 (1269 hits).
For those interested, the top six on the list are Alex Rodriguez, Edgar Renteria, Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Pudge Rodriguez and Carl Crawford.
Now, will Elvis reach 3000 hits? Probably not. He'd have to sustain his current level of performance well into his late 30s, defying the aging curve, much like...well, much like his partner on the left side of the Ranger infield, Adrian Beltre.
But based on Jaffe's numbers, its not out of the question...and that fact is, in and of itself, kind of remarkable.