Texas Rangers division odds over 99%

The Texas Rangers odds of winning the A.L. West are over 99% after yesterday's win against the Houston Astros, according to both Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs.  Baseball Prospectus puts the Rangers at 99.5% to win the division, while Fangraphs has them at 99.1%.

The Rangers are currently 9.5 games up on the Astros and 11.5 games up on the Mariners, with just 27 games left for the Rangers.  Even if Texas were to go 10-17 the rest of the way, Houston would have to go 20-8 the rest of the way just to force a one-game playoff for the division title.  We are approaching Black Swan Event territory for the Rangers to end up blowing the division race.

Meanwhile, the Rangers also have a three game edge for the best record in the American League, which would give them home field advantage in the ALDS, and a matchup against whoever wins the Wild Card game, as well as home field advantage in the ALCS if they win the ALDS.  Oh, and since the American League won the All Star Game this year, if the Rangers make it to the World Series, they'll have home field advantage there as well.

Texas even has an outside shot of winning 100 games this year with 81 wins currently, Texas would need to go 19-8 the remainder of the season to win 100 for the first time in team history.