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Checking in on the Hall of Fame candidates

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With close to half of expected ballots having been cast, Pudge Rodriguez has a good chance of being inducted this year

Boston Red Sox v Texas Rangers Photo by Rick Yeatts/Getty Images

Okay, folks...we are a month from spring training, there’s no Rangers news out there, not even much in the way of rumors, so let’s check in on the Hall of Fame voting, courtesy of Ryan Thibodaux...

Hall of Fame results will be announced on January 18, 2017.

Right now, Jeff Bagwell and Tim Raines both look like the two safe bets to be inducted this year. Each has received 167 votes out of 183 revealed ballots, for 91.3%. While unrevealed ballots are more likely to omit Raines or Bagwell, it is unlikely either is going to lose so much support among the unrevealed ballots that he won’t make it.

Pudge Rodriguez is the only other candidate currently over the 75% threshold on public ballots -- he is on 148 of 183 ballots, or 80.9%. Pudge would appear to be safe, but again, there’s a real possibility that he will not be included in a significant portion of non-revealed ballots, due to a belief that he used PEDs, a desire not to give him the honor of being a first-ballot inductee, or whatever else. Pudge needs to be named on 71% of the expected remaining ballots to make it in, by Ryan’s calculations and projections, and while I think he gets in, it wouldn’t be shocking if he fell just short.

On the other hand, Vlad Guerrero and Trevor Hoffman are both just barely short of 75% — Vlad is at 74.9%, Hoffman at 73.2% — but they could still make it in. Vlad is basically on the cusp right now anyway, and he is someone who would seem to get support from some of the more traditional voters, who have been less inclined to reveal their ballots in past years. Hoffman, meanwhile, is a close, and closers tend to do better on non-revealed ballots. Hoffman gained 3.8% last year between the final results based on revealed ballots and the actual results, and a similar surge this year would get him over 75%.