MLB free agent predictions from Jon Heyman have become an offseason staple, with Heyman predicting what the top free agents will end up signing for. Heyman goes through the top 80 free agents in this year’s edition, and with the Rangers scouring the market for starting pitching, it is worth checking out.
Both Heyman and his expert expect Yu Darvish to get six years at around $25M per year, while both think Jake Arrieta will get five years, Heyman pegging him at $25M per year, the expert at $28M per year. I don’t think the Rangers would do either of those, deals, though I’ve been wrong before.
Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb, who have been discussed as potential Texas Rangers targets, are projected at 4-5 years at $14-15M per year. That seems about right, though again, whether the Rangers will want to commit themselves to a half-decade for a #3 type starter in his 30s, given the current state of the team, is an open question.
For the former Rangers, Carlos Gomez is seen getting a 2-3 year deal, Jonathan Lucroy a 2 year deal, and Andrew Cashner a 2-3 year deal at $10M per. I could see Gomez or Cashner coming back on a two year deal at those sorts of numbers. Miguel Gonzalez is pegged at 1 year for less than $5 million, which I’d be fine with.
Other players we’ve discussed...Jarrod Dyson is projected to get two years at $14-15M total, which I’d jump all over if I were Texas, since he gives you that elite defensive CFer you’ve been looking for and gives you flexibility with what you do with Delino DeShields. Miles Mikolas, meanwhile, is 2 years at about $4 million per year, which, again, I think Texas would be interested in.
My guess for the offseason for the Rangers is that they have most of their eggs in the Shohei Ohtani basket, and if he doesn’t end up with Texas, they go with short-term deals, look to try to stay in the playoff hunt next summer, and if they are out of it, shop Cole Hamels and ask Adrian Beltre where he wants to go to finish the season.