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Okay, for you this is Wednesday. For me, I wrote this last Sunday night as I put together all of this week’s projection results posts. Let me tell you, after doing Doug Fister, Matt Moore, and now Matt Bush, there’s not a lot of feel good vibes coming out of me when I look at how Rangers pitchers did. At this point my best feedback is that the season’s over and they can’t hurt us anymore. Also, I didn’t do a LeClerc projection, but he had a great year so kudos to him.
Congrats to NHRanger who had the lowest projection score! Here’s the link to the spreadsheet with everyone’s score.
As a reminder, the scoring is using Z-Score, or the number of standard deviations away from the actual result, for each of the provided categories, PA, AVG, OBP, and SLG for hitters. For pitchers the categories were IP, ERA, SO9, BB9, and HR9.
The OPT+ number indicates how optimistic a projection was compared to the LSB average. A OPT+ of 115 is 15% more optimistic than average and an OPT+ of 85 is 15% more pessimistic than average.
Matt Bush - Totals
| Group | IP | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | FIP | RAA | OPT+ | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group | IP | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | FIP | RAA | OPT+ | SCORE |
| 2018 Season | 23.0 | 4.70 | 7.43 | 5.48 | 1.17 | 4.82 | 0.1 | 1 | 0.00 |
| 2017 Season | 52.3 | 3.78 | 9.97 | 3.27 | 1.20 | 3.56 | 7.5 | 79 | 1.95 |
| FanGraphs Depth Charts | 55.0 | 3.82 | 9.32 | 3.01 | 1.14 | 3.54 | 8.1 | 85 | 1.93 |
| LSB Average (50) | 62.0 | 3.48 | 9.07 | 2.91 | 1.14 | 3.55 | 9.5 | 100 | 2.12 |
Matt Bush - Top 5
| Top 5 | IP | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | FIP | RAA | OPT+ | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top 5 | IP | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | FIP | RAA | OPT+ | SCORE |
| NHRanger | 27.0 | 4.87 | 7.70 | 4.10 | 1.80 | 5.21 | -1.1 | -11 | 1.09 |
| KRO | 25.0 | 4.30 | 7.80 | 3.00 | 1.30 | 4.10 | 2.1 | 22 | 1.21 |
| panzratak | 42.0 | 4.25 | 8.00 | 2.70 | 1.20 | 3.81 | 4.9 | 52 | 1.49 |
| MonkeyEpoxy | 52.0 | 4.11 | 9.10 | 3.30 | 1.30 | 3.91 | 5.5 | 58 | 1.72 |
| Richard Hiney, esq | 55.0 | 3.90 | 9.10 | 3.40 | 1.10 | 3.66 | 7.4 | 77 | 1.75 |
Matt Bush - Bottom 5
| Bottom 5 | IP | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | FIP | RAA | OPT+ | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bottom 5 | IP | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | FIP | RAA | OPT+ | SCORE |
| vani1a | 72.0 | 2.89 | 10.10 | 2.90 | 0.90 | 2.98 | 15.0 | 159 | 2.80 |
| drstrat82 | 69.0 | 3.12 | 9.10 | 1.70 | 0.80 | 2.66 | 16.9 | 178 | 2.99 |
| skaks | 81.0 | 3.12 | 9.50 | 2.20 | 0.70 | 2.59 | 20.4 | 215 | 3.10 |
| Gdawg | 85.0 | 2.15 | 9.00 | 2.50 | 0.90 | 3.09 | 16.7 | 176 | 3.13 |
| snorlaxman | 150.0 | 2.79 | 9.50 | 4.00 | 1.40 | 4.20 | 11.0 | 116 | 3.17 |