Matt Swartz developed a model for projecting arbitration salaries, and every year at the end of the regular season MLB Trade Rumors puts all the projected arbitration salaries for the coming year up in a post.
The projected 2022 arbitration salaries for all of MLB are now up, and that, of course, includes the Rangers seven arb-eligible guys.
The only significant arbitration case, dollars-wise, is Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who is projected to get $4.9 million for 2022 in his next-to-last season of arbitration eligibility. IKF could theoretically be traded, but if he’s not traded he will be in Texas in 2022, for a relatively low salary.
Brett Martin and Taylor Hearn are each projected at $1.1 million — Brett Martin has three full seasons of service time, making him arbitration eligible for the first time, while Hearn is reported a Super Two. Neither are at risk of being non-tendered, particularly given that the new CBA will likely see the minimum salary get a hefty hike — I’m guessing $1M will be the new league minimum salary as of 2022.
Willie Calhoun is projected to end up at $1.6 million in arbitration. Calhoun’s future with the team is murky, but he’s still relatively inexpensive, and I would be surprised if the Rangers waived or non-tendered him.
Jharel Cotton is projected at $1.2 million for 2022. With Cotton, the question is whether the Rangers want to use a 40 man roster spot on him all winter, given he is out of options. He had a nice comeback season after missing all of 2018, having a bad 2019 season in the minors, and not pitching in 2020. Cotton performed reasonably well splitting time between AAA and the majors, and with three years of team control remaining, he could be viewed as having enough upside and team control to be worth keeping on the roster through camp.
The final two arb-eligible Rangers are Matt Bush and Ronald Guzman. Neither is projected to get much more than the current league minimum, and neither is likely to be deemed worth using a 40 man roster spot on, so the projected salary for each of them is likely moot.