It is Christmas Eve, and for those of you hanging around on LSB, I offer this up...
Let’s say Santa shows up tonight and says, as a loyal Ranger fan, you can pick one current Ranger player who will reach his 99th percentile projection in 2022. It can be a major leaguer or a minor leaguer — we aren’t limiting this to 40 man roster guys.
Because I know how you people are, I will clarify that:
1) the 99th percentile projection is good, not bad — they are in the best 1% of their projection probabilities.
2) this doesn’t change how other players do, so it isn’t like by picking this player you are impacting the likelihood of any other Ranger having a good 2022 season or a bad 2022 season. It doesn’t mean that no other player will reach their 99th percentile projection or that someone else will hit their 1% projection.
3) this is a “true talent” result — it isn’t like the player has this fluky 2022 season, and then goes back to performing at his 50th percentile projection based on 2021 and prior years. We are assuming this is a real leap forward in performance supported by underlying metrics.
Who is the one player you would pick?