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2 Possible Rangers and Reds Trades (YAY IKF is in MIN)

Now that Kershaw and Rodon are gone, there's no more TORPs available on the free agent market. That means the only way the rangers are getting one is through trade.

They can trade for an ace and sign a big bat on the market or they can do both at once while preserving the prospect pool for their more competitive seasons.

Sonny Gray - 2.8 war 2022 (zips)
1/10 through 22 with option

Total value (picking up grays option)
5.1 war
(.5 war deducted from projections per season)

5.1 war is worth 40.8 million (8 mil/war)

For 22 million (4.3 million per war)

So Gray's contract is an 18 million surplus

Based on this from driveline
https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2019/02/prospect-valuation-much-top-prospects-worth-professional-baseball-teams/

Gray's contract is worth between a 45 and 50 prospect or 3 40s. I bet the reds want quantity and something for the major league team.

Rangers get Gray
Reds get Hearn, Solak, Duran, Vanasco

The rangers still need a good bat in this scenario and I think one of Cruz or Rosario would fit the bill. I think Rosario is a better bet for a 2/20 contract.

If that prospect package is too painful, the rangers can go another direction:

Sonny Gray - 2.8 war 2022 (zips)
1/10 through 22 with option

Mike Moustakas - .9 war 2022
2/32 through 23 with option

Total value (picking up grays option but declining moustakas)
5.1 (Gray) + 1.4 (Moustakas)
(.5 war deducted from projections per season)

6.5 war is worth 52 million (8 mil/war)

For 54 million (8.3 million per war)

So after taking on moustakas contract, the two players contracts are worth a $2 million deficit.

Theoretically, the rangers could acquire Gray and Moustakas for nothing but 26 million added to their payroll this year. The Reds would need to cry in the shower if they did that, so the rangers will need to throw in a couple pity players for Cincinnati's self esteem.

Rangers get Gray and Moustakas
Reds get Calhoun, Allard, and Yerry

Gray gives rangers a good rotation of:

Gray
Gray
Dunning
Perez
Prospect

Moustakas can fill in at dh for a couple years and basically lengthen the lineup as an average bat with some power. Moustakas would still represent a significant improvement over what the rangers have put at dh the last couple years.

In this option, the Rangers get to keep their good prospects and improve both the rotation and lineup at once with one more possible move:

Drumroll

The rangers trade ikf and play Moustakas at third. Moose could play third for this year and move to dh when Jung returns next year. Moose is still capable at third and the rangers could use ikf to acquire a dh/corner outfield type like

Second, less dramatic Drumroll

Joey Gallo. He's projected for 4.7 war and 10.2 million (mlbtr)

4.7 war is worth 37.6 million

For 10.2 million

About a 27.4 million surplus

IKF is projected for 4.2 war and 4.9 mil for 22 and 6 mil for 23.

Since this happened

https://www.lonestarball.com/2022/3/12/22974217/mlb-trade-rumors-minnesota-twins-isiah-kiner-falefa-texas-rangers-new-york-yankees

The second trade makes even more sense. Moose can now play third in 22 and DH in 23. Welcome to the rangers, Moose and gray! Get lost, IKF!