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Rangers hitters at the quarter marker

We are 40 games into the season, and the Rangers hitters are

By Adam J. Morris
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Texas Rangers v Oakland Athletics Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images

We are 40 games into the 2023 season, and the Texas Rangers hitters are hitting. A lot.

The Rangers are first in the majors in runs per game, at 6.35. They are fourth in the majors in OBP and in slugging. They are second in the majors in wRC+ and OPS+.

Which is kind of remarkable, given that, heading into the season, there was much discussion about the lack of upgrades to an offense that was pretty middling in 2022. The consensus was that the upgrades to the rotation made starting pitching a strength, but there were questions about the offense (and, of course, the bullpen).

How are they doing it? Well, let’s take a look at the Statcast data and examine wOBAs, xwOBAs, and the like for the individual hitters thusfar:

player_name total_pitches ba iso babip slg woba xwoba xba
Seager, Corey 192 0.359 0.179 0.406 0.538 0.436 0.408 0.303
Heim, Jonah 524 0.315 0.218 0.359 0.532 0.389 0.391 0.298
Garver, Mitch 102 0.263 0.316 0.300 0.579 0.401 0.366 0.234
Duran, Ezequiel 413 0.304 0.188 0.372 0.491 0.357 0.365 0.302
García, Adolis 662 0.255 0.242 0.269 0.497 0.345 0.364 0.259
Lowe, Nathaniel 751 0.264 0.182 0.311 0.447 0.345 0.362 0.283
Smith, Josh H. 350 0.210 0.145 0.297 0.355 0.347 0.350 0.196
Jung, Josh 632 0.247 0.195 0.309 0.442 0.314 0.318 0.239
Semien, Marcus 678 0.287 0.188 0.317 0.475 0.369 0.317 0.240
Taveras, Leody 396 0.298 0.128 0.380 0.426 0.342 0.305 0.259
Miller, Brad 226 0.178 0.111 0.189 0.289 0.254 0.297 0.231
Jankowski, Travis 306 0.309 0.103 0.396 0.412 0.353 0.283 0.244
Grossman, Robbie 532 0.246 0.172 0.309 0.418 0.311 0.268 0.206
Thompson, Bubba 200 0.170 0.128 0.250 0.298 0.246 0.229 0.170
Huff, Sam 32 0.167 0.000 0.333 0.167 0.227 0.201 0.129
León, Sandy 119 0.160 0.080 0.333 0.240 0.212 0.197 0.139

In perusing the data, something that jumps out at me is that there are not a whole bunch of guys outperforming their expected performance (based on batted ball data). Marcus Semien and Leody Taveras are exceeding their xwOBA by a good-sized margin, and Travis Jankowski, not surprisingly, doesn’t have the peripheral data to support his hot start.

On the flip side, Adolis Garcia and Nathaniel Lowe, despite performing well in their actual numbers, are underperforming somewhat, compared to the expected data. So is Brad Miller, whose xwOBA isn’t good, but is still 43 points better than his actual outcomes.

What jumps out at me in particular is that two guys who are off to surprisingly good starts, Jonah Heim and Ezequiel Duran, are not benefiting from particularly good fortune. Heim, with a 905 OPS, and Duran, at 830, would seem to be guys you’d expect to see putting up a big spread between actual and expected wOBA. Instead, both are slightly (very slightly) under their expected results. That’s a positive sign, as far as sustainability of performance goes.

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