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2024 MLB Draft Preview: Caleb Lomavita scouting report
The 2024 MLB Draft is a little over a month away — the first round kicks off on July 14, 2024 — so its time to start offering capsule looks at players the Texas Rangers could select with their top picks. The Rangers’ first round pick is at #30, their second round pick is at #65, and their third round pick is at #103.
Leading up to draft day, we will be doing writeups of some of the players who could end up getting selected by the Rangers with one of their first three picks. I will note we haven’t really done this in the past couple of years, due both to the fact that the Rangers were picking at the top of the draft, meaning there were only a handful of players really in play with their first round pick, and the fact that they didn’t have their second and third round picks.
Today, we are looking at college catcher Caleb Lomavita.
Caleb Lomavita is a 5’11”, 200 lb. righthanded hitting catcher at the University of California. Lomavita is from Hawaii, and out of high school in 2021 was ranked # 293 in the Baseball America draft rankings, ultimately going undrafted in 2021.
After a solid if unspectacular freshman season at Cal in 2022 that saw him slash .272/.345/.414 in 55 games, Lomavita took a big step forward, particularly power-wise, his next two seasons. As a sophomore he slashed .316/.367/.612, while this year he slashed .322/.396/.586. Lomavita also played in the Cape Cod League after his freshman and sophomore seasons and saw an improvement there as well, going from .316/.354/.421 in 2022 to .329/.374/.494 in 2023.
Lomavita gets good reviews for his in-game power, and he tied for 9th in the Pac-12 this year in home runs, though there appear to be concerns about the extent to which his power is mainly to the pull side. He makes loud contact, which is good, but his K rate jumped from 2023 to 2024, from 11% to 16.7%. He also only drew 10 unintentional walks in 258 plate appearances, which was a similar problem the year before, when he drew just 11 walks in 226 plate appearances.
Lomavita is described as “surprisingly athletic,” I’m not sure is a compliment or not. The consensus is that he can likely stick behind the plate, but that he does need to show improvement defensively. BA says he has “turned in plus run times,” unusual for a catcher, and he’s seen as being athletic enough to play the outfield should he not stay behind the plate.
Baseball America’s top 500 list currently has Lomavita at #17. MLB Pipeline has Lomavita at #33 on their board. Keith Law has Lomavita at #42 on his board. Fangraphs has Lomavita at #16 on their board. Kiley McDaniel has Lomavita at #29 on his rankings.
In his most recent mock draft, Law does not have Lomavita going in the first round.. Baseball America projects Lomavita going to the Rangers at #30 in their May 31 mock draft, while the staff draft on May 17 has him going to the Giants at #13. Jonathan Mayo’s May 30 mock draft has Lomavita going to the Atlanta Braves at #24, while Jim Callis’s most recent mock draft doesn’t have Lomavita going in the first round. Kiley McDaniel mentions Lomavita as early as the Anaheim Angels at #8, ultimately projecting him to the Detroit Tigers at #11, in his mock draft, saying that he thinks the Milwaukee Brewers at #17 may be his floor.
Lomavita is a weird case — Mayo, in his mock, says that he had a hard finding a spot for Lomavita to land, despite him getting the most votes from executives in his poll of who the top catcher in the class is. When you see the spread in the mock drafts, with a couple of mocks having him go in the top 15 while others have him out of the first round altogether, I think that highlights the issue.
The contact issues, combined with the low walk rate, are the big red flags here. If his K rate and walk rate were a little better, he’d be a potential top 10 pick. If he graded out as a top flight defensive catcher, the problematic walk and contact rates would be less of a concern. He could be a really good major league catcher if he progresses defensively and improves his approach and swing recognition, and that upside is what could see him going in the first 15-20 picks, or he could end up being the poor man’s Sam Huff.
Lomavita being mocked to the Rangers prompted me to go ahead and write him up. The Rangers generally want hitters with their premium picks with strong bat-to-ball skills and strong exit velocities, and while the EVs would seem to be there, the swing and miss would seem to drop him on the Rangers’ board. On the other hand, catchers always have value, and at #30 the Rangers may think he’s worth the risk.
Previously:
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