Where has the offense gone?

The major storyline for the 2024 Texas Rangers has been the disappointing performance of the offense so far this year. After finishing first in the American League in just about every major offensive category in 2023, and putting up a 116 OPS+, the Rangers have fallen to middle of the pack offensively in 2024, putting up a 97 OPS+.

With the draft over and this being the All Star Break, it seems like a good opportunity to take a look at where the decline has happened, or is happening.

A couple of things to keep in mind here in comparing 2023 to 2024.

First, offense league-wide is down. The MLB average slash line in 2024 is .243/.312/.397. Last year, the MLB average slash line was .248/.320/.414. That’s a 25 point drop in OPS.

Secondly, and more weirdly, the Shed has been extremely pitcher-friendly this year, particularly compared to last year. If we look at the one year park factors at B-R,* the Shed is at around 13% below average for offense compared to the average park. In 2023, the one year park factor was around 5% above average. The Shed has generally been average to a little above average for offense since it opened. B-R, like most sites, uses a multi-year average when applying park factors, so 2024 OPS+ is based on a multi-year park factor that has the Shed as roughly neutral offensively, but if — IF — there’s something going on at the Shed this year that is especially suppressing offense, the park adjusted measures are not going to fully reflect that.

* Park factors essentially compare the delta between how both the Rangers and their opponents hit in the Shed versus away games. It doesn’t matter how good or how bad the offense or pitching of the team is in measuring park factors because you’re looking at the difference between performances by both sides at the Shed versus games not at the Shed.

And no, it isn’t the roof. The roof has been closed for 91% of games at the Shed this year, compared to 83% last year. If we look at Statcast’s park data, which also shows that the Shed is playing much less hitter-friendly this year, we can see that the ball isn’t traveling as far at the Shed this year. In 2023, Statcast shows that balls in Arlington traveled 5.2 feet farther than average, 6th highest in MLB. This year, it is just 0.3 feet farther than average, 12th highest.

Anyway...let’s take a look at some numbers.

In 2023, the Rangers slashed .263/.337/.452, and were first in the A.L. in runs, hits, homers, walks, average, OBP, slugging and OPS. They were second in doubles. That’s good!

In 2024, the Rangers have slashed .241/.311/.382. They are eighth in the A.L. in runs, seventh in hits, 14th in doubles, 9th in homers, sixth in walks, eighth in average, seventh in OBP, tenth in slugging, and eighth in OPS. That’s mediocre!

Interestingly, looking at it by month, the Rangers started off offensively fine, have been quite good in July, but were bad in May and June. Remarkably consistent from May to June, though — after slashing .232/.306/.358 in May, they slashed .232/.300/.362 in June. If the Rangers had replicated that May and June performance in April and July, they’d be the 28th best offense in baseball, ahead of only the Miami Marlins and the Chicago White Sox.

It would be great if there were some explanation for the May and June miasmic offensive performance, like a witch put a hex on all their bats on May Day, and it wasn’t until the end of June that they were able to get the hex removed. We’d probably feel better about things if that were the case. I’m not aware of any such explanation, though.

Okay, let’s look at performance by position. We shall start at catcher.

Rangers catchers in 2023: .270/.329/.461, 26% above league average for catchers

Rangers catchers in 2024: .228/.270/.334, 22% below league average for catchers

Well then. One is tempted to say, here’s the problem, and then announce case closed and move on to think about something else, like what the record is for most players taken by a team at the start of their draft with the first and last names having the same letter. We aren’t going to do that, however, because we care about our craft here at LSB.

Obviously the big hit here is Jonah Heim. Jonah Heim was really good last year, slashing .258/.317/.438 while starting 116 of the Rangers’ regular season games behind the plate (despite missing time with a bad wrist). He’s not been good this year, of course, slashing .241/.290/.354. His wOBA/xwOBA split last year was .324/.324, versus .284/.295 this year, so its not like he was particularly lucky last year, or unlucky this year. And his K rate is 19.2% this year after being 19.2% last year, so its not like that’s changed.

Jay Jaffe noted earlier this week that Heim hasn’t hit well since coming back from his wrist injury, and its possible that there are lingering effects from that that has sapped his power (which wrist injuries tend to do). Jay noted that Heim is still hitting the ball hard, its just on the ground more often, which is not good.

Of the rest of the catching innings last year, roughly half went to Mitch Garver (who only started 27 games behind the plate, less than I would have though) and half to the triumvirate of Sandy Leon, Austin Hedges and Sam Huff. Garver had an 1100 OPS as a catcher last year, which is awesome, and maybe we can complain that the Rangers shouldn’t have let him get away, but Garver hasn’t hit well for the Mariners this year (and isn’t really catching much either).

This year, Andrew Knizner has gotten almost all the non-Heim innings. Knizner, of course, has been awful this year, slashing .148/.167/.198. Of course, Leon slashed .146/.186/.195 with the Rangers and Hedges slashed .208/.208/.208, so, you know. Knizner’s xwOBA is .241, which is much better than his .162 wOBA, suggesting there’s some bad luck at play, but .241 is still bad. Knizner has hit better than this historically. The Rangers are presumably hoping he will again the rest of the way.

Rangers 1B in 2023: .261/.359/.413, 1% above league average for first basemen

Rangers 1B in 2024: .249/.337/.354, 8% below league average for first basemen

This is where folks will say “Aha, its Nathaniel Lowe’s fault!” because everything is always Nathaniel Lowe’s fault. Lowe started 161 games at first base for the Rangers in 2023, with only 27 innings at first base being handled by anyone else.

Lowe is only slashing .262/.348/.373 on the season for 2024. His performance while at first base is still 3% above league average for first basemen, though. The 30 point drop between Lowe’s season line and the Rangers’ first basemen as a whole can be attributed to Jared Walsh and Ezequiel Duran, who have gotten virtually every inning at first base that Lowe hasn’t had. Walsh has been released and Duran has been sent to AAA, which should tell you something about how well they hit.

It should be noted that Lowe’s wOBA/xwOBA split was .340/.339 last year, versus .321/.301 this year, so he’s actually performing better than the underlying data would suggest. His K and walk rates are the same as last year, but he’s not making as good contact, and his ground ball rate is over 50%, which is a problem.

Rangers 2B in 2023: .281/.352/.488, 30% above league average for second basemen

Rangers 2B in 2024: .240/.307/.394, 6% above league average for second basemen

This is Marcus Semien both years, for the most part. He had an awful month of June, which may or may not be related to the collision in May he and Adolis Garcia had. He’s been hitting better of late, and, well, he’s Marcus Semien. He does have an interesting wOBA/xwOBA split, having overperformed at .354/.333 last year, compared to .308/.328 this year. So really, the underlying data suggests he’s not doing much different than last year, though, like Lowe, his ground ball rate is up some, from 34.0% to 38.1%.

Rangers 3B in 2023: .238/.291/.405, 8% below league average for third basemen

Rangers 3B in 2024: .277/.359/.417, 21% above league average for third basemen

Hey, improvement! Last year saw Josh Jung get 120 starts at third base, and he hit well. However, in 78 plate appearances as a third baseman in 2023, Ezequiel Duran slashed .211/.273/.225, and Josh Smith slashed .097/.185/.194 in 81 plate appearances as a third baseman. The performances by those two were so bad that, despite Josh Jung being a (deserving) All Star and hitting very well in 2023, the overall third base production for the team was dragged down to below average.

This year, the Rangers have had Josh Smith for roughly 60% of the third base innings, with Ezequiel Duran, Davis Wendzel, Josh Jung and Jonathan Ornelas getting the rest. Smith has slashed .290/.390/.449 as a third baseman, Josh Jung was great for four games, Jonathan Ornelas was great in 10 plate appearances, Duran and Wendzel didn’t hit. The aggregate, due primarily to Smith, is comfortably above average, though.

As we have discussed before, Smith has a ridiculous wOBA/xwOBA split of .379/.317. Out of 207 major leaguers with at least 250 plate appearances this year, no one has a bigger positive gap than Smith’s 62 points, and only three other players — Trea Turner, Steven Kwan and Ezequiel Tovar — even have a 50 point gap. Thus, I’m not optimistic that this level of performance will continue.

That being said, they can’t take away what has already happened this year, and Josh Smith has been a big reason why the Rangers aren’t farther back than they are. Interestingly, Smith’s wOBA/xwOBA spread last year was .287/.321 — he actually had a better xwOBA in 2023 than he has this year. Weird, huh?

Rangers SS in 2023: .312/.386/.576, 68% above league average for shortstops

Rangers SS in 2024: .280/.359/.477, 29% above league average for shortstops

Last year saw Corey Seager perform at god-tier levels at shortstop when he was on the field. When he wasn’t on the field, Ezequiel Duran got most of the innings in his place, and Duran performed extremely well in Seager’s absence, slashing .291/.354/.478 at shortstop.

This year has been Corey Seager performing at a very high, but more mortal, level, and Smith performing at a Seagerian level when Seager isn’t playing shortstop.

I would like to point out that in what has been widely perceived to be a down year for Corey Seager, he is slashing .270/.355/.479 with a 136 OPS+ and a 3.1 bWAR. The only season where he’s played at least 100 games and had an OPS+ better than 136 is in 2023. Corey Seager is really really good.

Rangers LF in 2023: .266/.345/.414, 3% above league average for left fielders

Rangers LF in 2024: .231/.294/.388, 8% below league average for left fielders

Left field was supposed to be an area of improvement in 2024, with some combination of Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford handling the position after last year saw no one start more than 49 games in the position.

Fun fact — did you know Bubba Thompson started 13 games in left field last year for the Rangers? I didn’t. I had forgotten he was even on the Rangers’ major league roster last year. Bubba got a ring!

Anyway, the Rangers got good production from their grab-bag left field situation in 2023 with Ezequiel Duran raking when he was out there, Robbie Grossman hitting lefties well, Travis Jankowski putting up a .262/.340/.332 slash line as a left fielder, and Evan Carter coming in to take over in September.

Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford not meeting expectations has resulted in left field not being the strength it was hoped it would be this year. One expects they will improve, and this will end up being fine in the long run.

Rangers CF in 2023: .266/.321/.418 , 3% above league average for center fielders

Rangers CF in 2024: .234/.303/.365, 5% below league average for center fielders

It was mostly Leody Taveras last year, and it is mostly Leody Taveras this year. And Leody’s numbers have gone down this year, something that has been a topic of much discussion.

A couple of things to point out here. First, the Rangers have gone from a shade above average offensively in center field to a little below average offensively in center field. The decline relative to the league from 2023 to 2024 is smaller than at any other position, save 3B.

And second, Leody’s has a dramatic negative wOBA/xwOBA split, at .282/.313, after being at .316/.319 last year. Of the 207 hitters with at least 250 plate appearances, only 23 have a bigger negative split (Corey Seager, interestingly, being one of them, at .354/.387). It doesn’t change the fact that the lack of production has cost the Rangers this year, and they don’t go back and put more runs on the board because of that, but it suggests that the actual performance level this year is more or less than same as last year.

Rangers RF in 2023: .244/.328/.502, 18% above league average for right fielders

Rangers RF in 2024: .226/.292/.390, 13% below league average for right fielders

In 2023, this was mostly Adolis Garcia, with a little Robbie Grossman mixed in — they combined to start 154 of 162 games in right field. This year, it has been mostly Adolis Garcia, at 75 starts, with Travis Jankowski, Evan Carter and Derek Hill combining to start the other 21 games in right.

While part of this is because the Adolis replacements in 2023 being better than the Adolis replacements in 2024, most of the problem is that Adolis Garcia is having his worst season since becoming a regular in 2021. Garcia is slashing .211/.277/.405, with a 92 OPS+, after slashing .245/.328/.508 with a 127 OPS+ in 2023.

While we have discussed whether the decline is due to the collision with Semien on May 18, he was struggling prior to that. Garcia got off to a great start to the season, and was slashing .326/.368/.616 through April 21. Since then, over 68 games, Adolis is slashing .173/.247/.333. In the 22 games prior to May 18, Adolis slashed .179/.228/.345.

Why? I don’t know the answer. His wOBA is a little below his xwOBA, at .295/.314, but he had a .354/.366 split last year. His walk rate is down by roughly 25%, but his xwOBACON has dropped from .471 to .396, which is the lowest it has ever been as a regular. His batted ball metrics are down some — last year he was 91th percentile/96th/92th in average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard hit rate, compared to 85th/89th/83rd this year — but not so much it would explain such a dramatic drop.

And yes, we’ve talked about his struggles with fastballs this year, but I’m not sure how that connects with the batted ball data. Also, while he has a .295/.337 wOBA/xwOBA against fastballs this year, compared to .362/.371 last year, he’s also suffered a precipitous decline against breaking balls, from .367/.370 last year to .310/.283 this year.

Also worth noting is the fact that Adolis has slowed dramatically the last few years. As a rookie, his sprint speed was at the 83rd percentile in MLB. That dropped to 67th percentile in 2022, 50th percentile in 2023, and 29th percentile this year.

Rangers DH in 2023: .220/.315/.388, 13% below league average for DH

Rangers DH in 2024: .198/.269/.303, 44% below league average for DH

Gross.

DH wasn’t good in 2023, of course. Mitch Garver started 55 games at DH, Robbie Grossman 36 games, Ezequiel Duran 21 games, Brad Miller 16 games, and then five players had either 6 or 7 starts at DH. DH was a problem last year, one that, as with left field, it was thought would be improved upon in 2024 due to some combination of Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford.

That’s not happened. Wyatt Langford, Travis Jankowski, Robbie Grossman and Adolis Garcia have all started at least 14 games at DH. Eight other players have started at least one game there, including Davis Wendzel and Andrew Knizner. Jankowski is the biggest culprit — he has slashed .153/.219/.170 as a DH — but it is just a gigantic mess overall.

One of the things we discussed this offseason is whether the Rangers needed to get a reliable LF/DH option as a hedge against Evan Carter either not hitting lefties or not staying healthy, or Wyatt Langford struggling to adapt to the majors. The argument against was that Ezequiel Duran and Justin Foscue were good enough options that such insurance wasn’t necessary. That ended up being the wrong call, one that the Rangers somewhat acknowledged when they traded for Robbie Grossman early in the season.

Fun fact — only five teams in a non-strike-shortened/COVID-shortened season, who had the DH available in most of their games (so excluding N.L. teams that used the DH in 8 interleague games or whatever), have had an OPS from their DH spot lower than the Rangers’ 572 OPS this year. Amazing, isn’t it?

Anyway, here you go. Feel free to discuss all this.